October produced some big returns in the AIM Small Cap and International Equity Funds
The Marquette AIM student-managed funds had a strong month of October. Check out the top performers in the Small Cap and International Equity Funds.
October produced some big returns in the AIM Small Cap and International Equity Funds
The Marquette AIM student-managed funds had a strong month of October. Check out the top performers in the Small Cap and International Equity Funds.
The fundamental equity analysis employed by the students in the Marquette AIM program works!
The Marquette AIM Student-Managed Equity Funds continue to produce impressive return performance. As of 10/31/21, both funds exceeded their benchmarks for the month, YTD, and 3-years. Although not reported here, the funds also have outperformed their benchmarks on a 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year basis. These resulted are even stronger on a risk-adjusted basis.
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Total Return
(%) |
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Small Cap Fund |
Russell 2000 |
Excess Return |
October 2021 |
7.31 |
4.25 |
3.06 |
YTD 2021 |
20.12 |
17.78 |
2.34 |
3 Years |
75.33 |
62.93 |
12.40 |
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International Fund |
MSCI ACWI |
Excess Return |
October 2021 |
5.48 |
2.45 |
3.03 |
YTD 2021 |
17.76 |
8.80 |
8.96 |
3 Years |
61.72 |
44.89 |
16.83 |
BlackLine, Inc (BL, $126.23): "BlackLine’s Bottom-Line Surprise"
By: Graham
Pedersen, AIM Student at Marquette University
Disclosure:
The AIM Equity Fund currently holds this position. This article was written by
myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for
it and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is
mentioned in this article.
Summary
Key
points: BL reported Q2 2021 earnings of $0.15 per share, beating the consensus
estimate of $0.08 per share, representing an earnings surprise of 87.5%. BL posted
$102.12 million in revenues for the quarter ending June 2021, surpassing the consensus
estimate of $101.1 million. BL showed revenue growth of 22.6% year-over-year,
and its price-to-earnings ratio is currently 193.5. The company has
outperformed consensus EPS forecasts four times over the last four quarters.
The BlackLine Optimization
Academy consists of training sessions that focus on nine foundational
accounting processes to improve efficiency in automation with BL. In addition,
the initiative seeks to help customers get the most value out of BlackLine by
proactively engaging them earlier in the transformation process. As a result, BL
can expect to experience increased adoption and platform expansion as clients
realize the full benefits of the service.
While the effects of the pandemic
are subsiding, BL has seen an increasing trend in large companies prioritizing
digital transformation. As a result, executives are being asked to perform more
with the same or even fewer resources in today's organizations, which are
experiencing a severe skills crisis. BL can capitalize on this by automating
time-consuming and laborious activities, thus freeing critical finance and
accounting resources.
BlackLine’s SolEx deals were vast
and strategic in scope, covering APAC, EMEA, and North America. SolEx was
especially strong in the APAC region, creating significant orders and
building its small growing business in Japan. BL expects to continue
capturing new SolEx accounts through partnerships.
What has the stock done lately?
BL’s share price has consolidated
within the $110s/$120s over the past month and hasn’t shown any signs of a break-out.
From year to date, BL shares have fallen 7.5%, compared to a gain of 20.8% for
the S&P 500. The stock's 50-day moving average is $116, and its 200-day
moving average is $117. The Q1 2021 consensus EPS forecast is $0.13 on revenues
of $107.5 million and $0.48 for the current fiscal year on revenues of $420
million.
Past
Year Performance:
Shares of BlackLine, Inc. have
been trading within a range of $154.61 and $88.62 over the last 52-week period.
BL has experienced a YTD loss of -7.52%, with a 52-week beta of 1.25. BL was
closely shadowing the Russell 2000 (Figure 1), although BL fell sharply in
March and continued to lag while the Russell 2000 continued sideways. BL has underperformed
the benchmark from year-to-date, producing a 52-week gain of 22.13%, compared
to the benchmark at 39.52%.
My
Takeaway
BL was added to the small-cap
portfolio in March 2017 at around $27.50 per share, with a price target of
$32.99. Since being added to the fund, the stock has gained over 348%. BL was
pitched under the notion that expanding through international- and
middle-market penetration would drive top and bottom-line growth. Management
has demonstrated strong performance, quadrupling the firm’s size over four
years, reducing the WACC by 44%, and generating positive ROIC, ROA, and ROE
since added. Because the investment thesis continues to support long-term
growth and profitability, I believe that BL represents a hold in the AIM
small-cap equity fund.
AIM Class of 2022 Student Equity Presentations on Friday, October 29th
Join us live in person in the AIM Room or via Teams for this week’s AIM presentations beginning at 1:00 pm.
This is the link for the AIM equity write-ups
(each week’s write-ups will be available on Thursday mornings): AIM Write-ups 10/29/21
This is the link for the YouTube videos of the 8-minute student presentations (each week these will be posted on Thursday afternoons)
If you would like to participate in the live Q&A session with
the student presenters on Friday at 1:00 pm CST on Teams, please email
Jessica Hoerres at: jessica.hoerres@marquette.edu
Please feel free to submit questions to be asked of the students by emailing them to david.krause@marquette.edu
Beam Global (BEEM 28.75): “Running Low on Battery”
By: Jacob
Kello, AIM Student at Marquette University
Summary
KEY POINTS
In the year 2020, the
global electric vehicle (EV) market size was valued at $246.74 Billion, which
was down 9.7% from 2019 due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. However, Fortune
Business Insights, a company which specializes in the research of sectors,
projects that by 2027, the EV market will grow to 985.72 billion USD which
represents a CAGR of 17.4%. In unit terms, the global EV market demand was
estimated at 8.5 million vehicles in 2020 and is projected to reach 116 million
units by 2030 according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Demand for EV’s
clearly exists and is being met by newer EV companies and some traditionally
internal-combustion engine auto companies which are now producing more EV
lines. While the demand for Electric vehicles clearly exists, the demand for
public charging stations has stalled due to slow-moving infrastructure bills,
and the Biden Administration’s climate agenda no longer being a part of the
bill. This unfortunately has some not-so-great implications for a stock in the
AIM Small Cap Domestic Fund—Beam Global.
The most important driver of
earnings for BEEM was its GSA MAS contract with the federal government that
allows federal institutions to purchase EV Charging products specifically from
BEEM Global. At the beginning of the new presidency, the Biden administration
also had committed to deploying over 500,000 EV charging stations by 2030. This
commitment was clearly contingent on a climate-centric infrastructure bill, and
it was very recently announced that the administration’s climate agenda will be
completely removed from the bill due to opposition within the democratic party
coming mainly from West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin.
The company has yet to turn a
profit, and it doesn’t look like it will by 2025 which is when it was projected
to turn a profit when it was bought by the fund. Even with the levelized cost
of energy for photovoltaic solar being the lowest it has ever been and
continuing to decrease, materials costs to produce solar panels and batteries
have continually increased which obviously hurts a company that relies on solar
power storage to charge electric vehicles.
What has the stock done lately?
Recently, the stock has been
fairly stagnant. Since May of 2021, the stock has continuously above and below
$30, and since adding the stock to the Small Cap Domestic Fund, it has gone
down by 40.65%. On October 7th, the company released news that they
had received an order from the United States Marine Corps to purchase EV Arc
and energy resiliency systems for 14 of their bases, and the per share price
only rose 2.4% by the end of the week. This stock is stagnant, and will
continue to be stagnant unless the infrastructure bill includes climate
provisions which is looking unlikely.
Past Year Performance
BEEM has fallen 61.03% YTD and over a
52-week period has increased by 85.01%. The 52-week high-low for AMRC is 14.15
– 75.90. The 52 week beta for Beam Global is 2.8, representing very high
volatility in comparison to the market.
My Takeaway
The investment thesis for BEEM global
has yet to pan out and does not look like it will anytime soon. The upside for
BEEM was heavily dependent on their GSA MAS contract with the federal
government, and that contract was also dependent on the infrastructure bill
that congress was expected to have passed long ago. Also, with Senator Joe
Manchin stalling any action in regards to a climate bill, it is not expected
that the most important driver for this stock will pan out anytime soon. With
that being said, it is recommended that BEEM should be sold and taken out of
the AIM Small Cap Domestic Fund.
Insight Enterprises, Inc. (NSIT, $93.56): “Continued Growth Insight”
By: Will
Steinhafel, AIM Student at Marquette University
Summary
Key
points: On August 6, 2021, Insight Enterprises reported Q2 EPS of
$1.91/share, beating consensus estimates of $1.87. Revenue also surpassed
expectations at $2.23 billion, representing a 13.26% YoY increase. This
impressive quarter was driven by strong hardware demand, as well as SaaS and
Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) sales growing at high double digits during
the quarter.
Despite ongoing supply
constraints due to Covid-19 disruptions, management is confinement in Insight’s
ability to continue to work with customers to forecast demand moving forward.
In NSIT’s Q2 earnings call, management shared that they project over 50% of the
company’s backlog will be shipped during Q3 FY21. NSIT’s supply chain and
product pipeline is expected to normalize and return to healthy growth during
the second half of FY 2022.
Insight is aiming to grow its
cloud solutions business through the development and sales of SaaS and
Infrastructure-as-a-service offerings. As previously mentioned, NSIT saw strong
growth of these product lines during Q2, resulting in cloud gross profit
increasing over 300 bps YoY to 22%. Management is dedicated to growing Insight’s
cloud offerings moving forward to continue revenue growth and margin
improvement.
What
has the stock done lately?
Insight’s share price has
remained relatively flat over the last month, with a -0.65% decrease during the
period. NSIT beat Q2 FY21 consensus earnings by $0.04, reporting EPS of $1.91
representing a 9.14% YoY increase.
Past
Year Performance:
Over the last year, NSIT’s share
price has increased 47%. The 52-week high-low for NSIT has ranged from $107.27
to $52.63. As of Q2 FY21, Insight posted all time high LTM revenues of $8.65
billion. Since being added to the AIM Small Cap fund in September 2020, NSIT’s
share price has increased 56%.
My
Takeaway
Since being added to the AIM
Small Cap fund in September 2020, Insight Enterprises has well surpassed its
price target of $87.86, however, the initial investment thesis remains intact.
NSIT is poised to continue to benefit from increased demand as businesses look
to shift to cloud-based solutions and modern technology infrastructure. As
management focuses on SaaS and IaaS offerings, continued margin expansion can
be expected due to decreased cost of goods sold. It is recommended that the AIM
Small Cap fund continue to hold Insight Enterprises.
TechTarget, Inc. (TTGT, $82.74): “On Target to Exceed Expectations”
By: Natalie
Frey, AIM Student at Marquette University
Summary
Key
points: TechTarget, Inc. remains 'in-play'. While the price saw little
movement during Q2 and most of Q3, toward the later months of the third quarter
the stock began to gain traction. Currently, TTGT stands at $82.74 per share,
which is up approximately 8% from its addition to the fund. While this growth
in share price demonstrates positive movement, the stock has not yet lived out
the thesis which states a target price of $92.70.
Given the positive earnings surprises
seen in Q2, the original thesis appears to hold true at this time in its
argument that TTGT still has room to grow. During 2020, TechTarget acquired
BrightTALK, a webinar hosting platform primarily to expand the firm’s reach
into the corporate IT market. During 2021, BrightTALK registered users have
been integrated into the Priority Engine product offered by TTGT and this has
provided revenue synergies above previous expectations for Q2 of 2021. With
synergies resulting from the acquisition hitting TTGT’s P&L faster and at a
greater level than originally expected, the markets are favorably surprised by
the firm’s agility in creating value from strategic acquisitions. This provides
good reason to be optimistic about the likely benefits to come from the recent acquisition
of Xtelligent.
In addition to the favorable
impacts of prior year acquisitions, TechTarget announced a new product during
the summer of 2021. The product that was announced in June was the new and
improved version of the legacy product, Priority Engine. The new version adds
significant enhancements to the legacy platform with account visibility that is
2x that of the legacy system and enhanced access to content consumption information.
While these additions may seem like minor refinements of existing features, the
impact for sales reps utilizing TTGT has been significant.
With the successful integration
of BrightTALK users into TechTarget’s core platform, the impactful new product launch,
and continued focus on growth and improvement of existing product lines, TTGT
is on a steady path to achieving a higher value. The consensus analyst recommendation
supports this argument, with the average price target having risen to ~$100.
What
has the stock done lately?
Since the release of Q2 earnings,
the stock has risen approximately 12%. The positive earnings surprise has the
market taking a second look at their expectations for TechTarget’s growth
potential. The recent momentum demonstrates the likely start of a gradual climb
for TTGT’s share price in the coming months.
Past
Year Performance: The YTD returns stand at 37.5% for TTGT, with the
1Y return rising to 64.4%. The YTD returns demonstrate impressive growth, but TechTarget
remains undervalued according to the original thesis the stock was pitched on and
much of the street’s valuation estimates. With the price beginning to climb after
a multi-month stretch of low movement, TTGT’s share price is likely to continue
climbing in the near-term.
My
Takeaway
TechTarget’s success in integrating
BrightTALK’s registered users into the core product platform has driven synergies
that exceed expectations, both in magnitude and time of realization. The release
of a positively received new version of Priority Engine has expanded the value
offered by TechTarget’s products and services for both clients, and end-buyers.
With high quality content, the buyers of corporate IT are able to access
high-quality information and be efficiently connected to sellers based on
consumption data. The sellers of IT have even more to gain from TTGT’s enhanced
offerings and increased user base, making top choice in sales development
tools.
Vestas
Wind Systems ADR(VWDRY, $82.39): “Is there still wind at
its back?”
By: Bob Thelen,
AIM Student at Marquette University
Summary
Key
points:
Vestas
Wind Systems remains a stable company as they continue to expand production of various
wind turbine systems. The firm has consistently grown sales figures from $9.3
billion in 2015 to $16.8 billion in 2020 although net income has been stagnant from
a 2015 figure of $760 million to a 2020 figure of $872 million.
Vestas maintained
a current ratio of at least 1.1 since 2014 as they utilize the majority of
their assets for leverage in expanding production and development of new systems.
The firm also has a Debt/Equity ratio of 29.1% which puts them at very low risk
of encountering debt issues in the near future. While Vestas has encountered
slow growth in the past, their capital structure shows that they are prepared
to take advantage of the increasing international demand for wind power systems.
As Vestas continues to accept new
contracts for various international clientele, they stand to benefit from global
trends towards wind and solar power generation and are steadily increasing capital
expenditures to a high of $901 million in 2021 (LTM), up significantly from
$408 million in 2015.
What has the stock done lately?
Vestas
has been up since March of 2020 with a current share price of $11.55 and has
been in a range of $11 to $15 for the majority of 2021 as no major news has
affected its share price since January of 2021 when it received regulatory
approval on a joint venture with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
Past
Year Performance: Vestas share price has not increased in value over
the past year as a result of a sharp increase in January of 2021 due to approval
for a joint venture with Mitsubishi Industries, but fell due to a market
correction.: Vestas’ valuation implies a steep discount with a broker price
target of $75.25. While unlikely to hit this target in the near term, it has
the potential to achieve this by taking advantage of the rapidly expanding wind
power segment.
Vestas is
proving to be a major player in the development and production of the wind
power industry and will stand to benefit from global trends toward renewable energy
sources. While they have experienced slow growth and a stagnant share price over
the past few years, they are ramping up to provide an increasing customer base
with wind power solutions. If Vestas can take advantage of this growing market,
then they will be able to achieve the lofty price target set by various
brokers.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI, $18.39): “SoFlying into the future of banking”
By: Rishi
Kumar, AIM Student at Marquette University
Disclosure:
The AIM Equity Fund currently holds this position. This article was written by
myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for
it and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is
mentioned in this article.
Summary
Key
points: SoFi had a disappointing earning in
August which caused share prices to plummet to $13.75. However interestingly enough
SoFi’s CEO Anthony Noto was thoroughly impressed with the performance of the company
as they recorded their fourth straight quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA and
grew every key performance measure.
Revenues
for SoFi grew 101% to $231M in Q2 beating street estimates by 6% while total
members rose 117% to 2.6 million. The financial services segment grew 608% to
$17M while the financial technologies segment represented by the Galileo platform
acquired last year grew accounts 119% to 78.9 million accounts while growing
revenues 138% to $45.3 million.
However,
despite the growth EPS came to -0.48 vs the expected -0.06 EPS causing the
street as well as investors to become weary. However, the EPS was slightly misleading
as much of it can be tied to non cash one time non-cash items. Most prominently
was a one-time non-cash cost related to deferred tax liabilities of 99.8M which
were tied the Galileo acquisition and 89M could be tied to stock based
compensation. Also, the company’s positive adjusted EBITDA and user metrics were
not considered by the street which are more relevant for an aggressively
growing financial technology company rather than an EPS figure.
Since then,
SoFi’s shares have rebounded quite nicely, going up nearly 25% since the
earnings call. Much of that outperformance can actually be tied to a sell side
initiation report published by Morgan Stanley on October 11th, 2021,
which caused share prices to climb 13.45%. According to Betsy Graseck, the
analyst at Morgan Stanley who initiated coverage, SoFi is a disruptive company that
has a “powerful growth story” and according to Graseck SoFi has two major
growth catalysts: student loan refinancing and the bank charter SoFi is actively
pursuing.
Student
loan refinancing was SoFi’s first initial claim to fame as they became famous
for having some of the lowest student loan refinancing rates among legacy
players and challengers. The student loan space is ripe for this kind of mass
refinancing, according to a study done by Andrew Latham at Supermoney[1], student loans have been the fastest growing debt
in US households since 2007 with 32x faster growth than mortgages and 3x faster
growth than auto loans. This would give SoFi a huge tailwind as student loan
deferments end at the end of January 2022 especially with a large base of potential
customers in the United States who have student loans.
SoFi
will also benefit from a second major driver according to Morgan Stanley which
is the procurement of a bank charter. A bank charter allows SoFi to underwrite
their own loans instead of using bank partners which in turn leads to margin
expansion and increased profitability. According to SoFi’s last investor presentation
a bank charter would result in adjusted EBITDA rising from $254M to $447M and
growing at a CAGR of 143% as opposed to 130% from 2021 to 2025. The lower cost
of capital and the ability to capitalize on their own deposits while also cross
selling loan products to other digital banks via the Galileo platform will
drive incremental growth in revenue and margins.
In
recent news, SoFi announced a proposal to issue $1.1 billion in unsecured convertible
notes that are due in 2026 with an interest rate of 0% and a conversion price
of $22.41. The increased liquidity will be used to build out SoFi’s platform
without the company having to incur heavy interest expenses. The initial notes
proposed were for $750M but management appended the figure to $1.1 billion to
capitalize on the low cost of debt.
What
has the stock done lately?
The
stock has had quite the pop recently as mentioned earlier due to the sell side
report and due to the gross misunderstanding of earnings by the street and
investors who grew wary by the higher than expected negative EPS. The stock
went up 13.45% on October 11th and since their last earning call
shares have risen considerably. . The next earnings call is set to take place on
November 10th, 2021.
Past Year Performance: SoFi’s SPAC merger was less than a year ago so share prices are up ~84% since the merger was announced however the stock is still down from its 52-Week high of $25.78. Overall negative sentiment towards SPAC’s and less than stellar EPS in recent quarters has brought down share prices.
My
Takeaway
With strong user and revenue growth
metrics and a business model that is sticky due to the one stop shop nature of
the business, SoFi is still in optimal position to keep growing revenues
aggressively and expand margins through the procurement of a bank charter. The
street is starting to account for the strong growth in users and consistent
positive EBITDA as evidenced by Morgan Stanley’s initiation report. SoFi’s
lower rates, rounded product lineup, and completely digitized platform gives
them a significant advantage over their big bank peers and the thesis on which SoFi
was pitched remains strong as the technology segment is still seeing 100+% growth
and consumers are flocking to SoFi’s robust platform. Due to these reasons I
believe SoFi’s stock is still undervalued and it is recommended that the AIM
small cap fund continue to hold SoFi shares in the portfolio.