Kentucky Derby Predictions – Dr. Krause AIM Blog - A Slow Field Hopefully Yields an Exciting Race

I’m back again for the sixth year with my Kentucky Derby picks – and I’m on a bid of a hot streak having picked the winners the past two years. The 142nd 'Run for the Roses' has a shallow crop of 3-year-olds, unlike last year. The 20 horse field is weak, which can make for an exciting race.

Of the four major races leading up to the Derby, all of them have been won by closers – and as a result there are few speed horses in the field. While Nyquist has not yet lost, his odds are way too rich for me. I think there could be some long shots that might win in this field – so the exotic wagers could have some big payouts.

Best of the Field:  #13 Nyquist (3-1 odds)

Two years ago I successfully picked the Derby winner California Chrome and last year I chose American Pharoah to win – not too bad!  Nyquist has won seven races in 2016 (including the Florida Derby in April) and was the winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race. He’s trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Mario Gutierrez - the bloodline is fine, but not great. He will be in my exotic bets, but at 3-1 odds this pony is going off too rich for a win wager (in other words, the P/E ratio is too high).

My Favorite: #17. Mor Spirit (12-1)

Here's my winner - and I need to be straightforward and tell you that my favorite horse of all-time was Seattle Slew - who was his great grandfather. So, with a strong pedigree, the top trainer (Bob Baffert), and a famed jockey (Gary Stevens), Mor Spirit is my favorite in the Derby. The 12-1 odds on this Pennsylvania-bred horse look great - a real bargain; and I’m not worried about the 17^th post because this is going to be a slow race. He's worthy of a win bet and to be included in your exotic wagers (this is a value play).

Long-shot: #20 Danzing Candy (15-1)

With all of the closers in the race, I like this speed horse. Trainer Clifford Sise (first Derby) and Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith need to get this colt to the front early – which is no easy task starting from the 20^th post. This colt can run really fast - and is one of the few speed horses in this Derby - and you can ignore his weak run in the Santa Anita race in April which was run on a sloppy track. Getting out ahead of the pack could be the winning ticket - remember that this is a 20 horse field which can resemble a demolition derby. This is a fun win-place-show bet.

Here's my predicted order of finish: #17, #13 and #20. Good Luck!

View the 5th Set of Marquette AIM Student Equity Pitches for the Class of 2017 on Friday, May 6th at 2:00 CST

You can join the AIM Program Student Equity Presentations in person, online or via Twitter on Friday, May 6th at 2:00 pm CST 

 The AIM student equity pitches take place each Friday afternoon during the semester – either in the AIM Room or at a local investment company. Watch the third set of live presentations by the students in the AIM Class of 2017 (see webcast link below).

Webcast Link: 
https://meet77796088.adobeconnect.com/r7r0s49z35l/

 The students prepare and distribute a professional equity write-up (note: every AIM write-up since the inception of the program in 2005 is archived here). 

This week’s equity write-ups can be found at: 

AIM Equity Write-Ups 5_6_16

The students are responsible for making a five-minute pitch before their peers, faculty and any alumni or investment professional in attendance.

Following the student’s pitch the floor is opened for questions and answers for about ten minutes. This has been highly instructive as the students must be prepared to defend their investment recommendation and answer questions in an extemporaneous manner.  

Matt Rose of Alpha Investment Consulting Group Presented to Marquette's Finance Classes Today

Matt Rose of Alpha Investment Consulting Group Visited Dr. Krause’s AIM and Alternative Investments Classes on Wednesday, May 4, 2016

 

Dr. David Krause and his students in the AIM program and Alternative Investments classes hosted Matt Rose (Marquette AIM 2007), a Consultant at Alpha Investment Consulting Group in Milwaukee. Matt is a frequent campus visitor and has spoken in Dr. Krause’s classes regularly since graduating from Marquette’s AIM program.

Dr. Krause and Matt Rose in the AIM Room

Alpha Investment Consulting is an independent, employee-owned, SEC registered investment consulting firm dedicated exclusively to institutional investment consulting. The firm has no affiliations with brokerage operations or other service providers, and they have no company-specific products to sell. Independence from other lines of business allows Alpha to minimize potential conflicts of interest.

Alpha provides the following services to their institutional and family clients:

• Manager Research& Evaluations
• Custodial/Administration Search & Evaluations
• Performance Monitoring & Reporting
• Investment Policy Development
• Fee Negotiations with Vendors
• Fee Benchmarking
• Fiduciary Standards
• Directed Investment Consulting
• Model Portfolio Development.

Matt Rose (AIM 2007)

Matt Rose joined Alpha as an Analyst in 2007, gaining experience in client performance reporting and manager due diligence, before transitioning into consulting. Matt previously worked for Robert W. Baird and Co., in the Baird Investment Management Group.

Matt advises clients on investment policy statements, asset allocation, manager selection and portfolio structure.  Additionally, he remains engaged in the due diligence process, conducting manager interviews and collaborating with other research staff members.

Matt Rose talks to AIM students

Matt holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration from Marquette University.  He currently serves on the Board of the Friends of the Haggerty Art Museum, as well as the Admissions Committee for Marquette University’s AIM Program, participates as a classroom volunteer for Make a Difference – Wisconsin, and regularly guest lectures at the Marquette University College of Business Administration.

Dr. Krause said, “Matt always does an excellent job in the classroom and in informal discussions with the AIM students. He provided a solid presentation to the Alternative Investments class on the trends in the alternative investments industry and was excellent at engaging the students in conversations in the AIM Room. Matt provides real world examples and tells stories that help bring the curriculum to life. It is great to have him return to Marquette."