He continued, "Over the past couple of years, I've told my students and others to watch the Case-Shiller housing price index and when it bottoms out this will be a favorable indicator for the recovery of the U.S. economy. This past week the composite August Case-Shiller monthly index (a 3 month average of June, July and August, which is shown to the right) was released. And while the index showed that housing prices are off 29.2% from the peak, it also shows that nationally housing prices have plateaued. While many economists are predicting that housing prices will continue to weaken more in 2011, the AIM students are forecasting a positive increase in residential investment."
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"This past week the regional Fed manufacturing survey showed "moderate" expansion in October (blue line). The graph on the right is from Calculated Risk and includes the average of the New York and Philly Fed surveys - and other Fed districts (green line). The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (red) is also shown. The graph and the Index of Leading Indicators (not shown) are suggesting that the threat of a double dip recession has passed and that expansion is likely in 2011," said Dr. Krause.
"Other indicators point toward improving conditions for the consumer in the U.S. Driven by improving same-store sales and higher levels of customer traffic, the level of optimism among restaurant operators - and their 2011 outlook - have improved. The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – was over 100 the past month which signifies expansion in this leading consumer sentiment indicator," commented Krause.
"The AIM student macro-economic and interest rate forecasts are used to set the strategy for the AIM Fixed Income Fund," Dr. Krause added. "This week the students will adjust their fixed income portfolio based on their 3- and 6-month economic forecasts. In an upcoming blog we will summarize their fixed income investment strategy and underlying assumptions. As you can tell from the comments above, the consensus of the AIM students is for a stronger economy in 2011."