Wednesday, March 14, 2018

A current AIM Program Small Cap Equity Holding: Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) by: Jack Senft. "Tactile's Good Tactic"

Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD, $32.52): “Tactile’s Good Tactic”

By: Jack Senft, AIM student at Marquette University
Disclosure: The AIM Equity Fund currently holds this position. This article was written by myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

 Summary

Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:TCMD) is a medical technology company that focuses on treating chronic diseases in a home environment.  With improving patient outcomes, Tactile is still able to control rising healthcare costs.

• Recent Flexitouch feedback has come above expectations with it’s full-lunch expected to come by the end of the first quarter 2018.

• Tactile shows salesforce expansion of 20% over the 2017 year.

• 2018 guidance has been updated to over 20% revenue growth, which is in line with Street expectations.

• Increasing product presence among the 4,500 lymphedema facilities in the US.

Key points: Flexitouch Plus, Tactile’s head and neck lymphedema platform, is their top revenue producer that showed strong positive feedback, especially for improved pressure controls.  Since this is the treatment for lipedema, patients are very sensitive pressure, meaning this platform has a gentler setting as opposed to competitors.  Due to not being fully launched until May, alow penetration is normal and Tactile has begun to combat this by the increase in sales representatives.

In the 2017 fiscal year, management hired 160 new sales representatives, equating to 28% growth from the previous year.  With an original expectation of growing the staff at around 20%, this increase in reps could improve productivity and product penetration. Increasing by this volume demonstrates that Tactile will be able to maintain relationships with each lymphedema facility.

Flexitouch, being 93% of Tactile’s total revenue continues to demonstrate growth potential, along with strong gross margins.  Management stated that physician awareness should increase in the near term due to a dedicated sales resources team, and through word of mouth.  With this in mind, management has also increased revenue guidance to 22% growth, as opposed to their old estimates of only around 20%.  Even though this is in line with the Street, this seems to be a conservative estimate where a potential upside is still possible.

In the United States alone there are about 4,500 high-diagnosing lymphedema facilities, where Tactile penetrates about 40% of those.  With an estimated 10,000 physicians in these facilities, Tactile has a great opportunity to increase Flexitouch awareness, especially through a larger salesforce.  Not only this, but Tactile is looking to go deeper into these facilities with more than one high-diagnosing physicians, while also trying to add their products in new facilities.

What has the stock done lately?

Over the past month, Tactile has seen almost a $4.00 increase in per share value.  As this might not seem like a lot per share, this is a 13.88% increase, which is outperforming the market.  Being around the low $30 range, Tactile did see about a 10% decrease that was quickly corrected.  An increase in the stock price should be expected with the full launch of Flexitouch, given the positive feedback.

Past Year Performance: TCMD has increased 63.75% in value over the past year, and the stock should still continue to increase in value. Peaking in around September at $36.79, TCMD has a beta of that close to 1. As there appears to be only one major correction during this period, TCMD is on track to break the 52-week high with new catalysts still coming.


My Takeaway

Flexitouch has a full-launch that is quickly approaching and Tactile is in a great position for large returns, while minimizing risk. Seeing the positive feedback and the increase in salesforce, Tactile is gearing up for the launch.  With management’s increase in guidance for revenue, TCMD maintains a buy status, potentially shooting past their 52-week high especially with the upcoming catalysts. 

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