Friday, June 8, 2012

Krause's Belmont Stakes Predictions

No Triple Crown winner in 2012.

With the scratch of I’ll Have Another, the 2012 Belmont Stakes comes down to either Union Rags or Dullahan. Too bad because it would have been good for the sport to have IHA run for the Triple Crown. Oh well, maybe next year…

Long Shot (20:1) #10 Optimizer. D. Wayne Lukas was kicked in the head this week by one of his horses and is getting up there in age, but Optimizer might sneak into the money. This might be Lukas' last major.  While not a strong horse running in the previous two legs of the Triple Crown, Optimizer should be better at the 1 1/2 mile Belmont track. At 20:1 this would be a nice payout.  Bet WPS #10 and include your exotics.

Best Pick (6:1) #3 Union Rags. This was my pick in the Kentucky Derby and I still like him. Union Rags ran a poor Derby getting blocked deep in the field for most of the race and finished a closing 7th. Union Rags was an unbeaten two year old who lost the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall by a nose. Mistakes by jocky, Julien Leparoux, have resulted in John Velazquez getting the ride. With a winning trainer, Michael Matz, and Seattle Slew bloodlines, I like Union Rags.  The odds won’t stay at 6:1, but I think this is the winner on Saturday in New York. Bet to win.

Solid Pick (5:1) #5 Dullahan. The only reason this is not my top pick for the Belmont is because Hall of Fame jockey, Kent Desormeaux, lost his mount on Dullahan to Javier Castellano. While Belmont is Castellano’s home track, Desormeaux is a proven big race jockey and is not as familiar with the horse. Dullahan, owned by Iowa-based Donegal Racing, was a strong third in the Kentucky Derby and then sat out the Preakness. He should be fresh and ready to run the distance. Look for Union Rags to edge out Dullahan . Bet WPS. 

Good luck - and too bad that we don't have a shot at the Triple Crown this year.