The 90-day chart shows the huge sell-off in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The iShares TIPS ETF is off over 6% since mid-March, while the U.S. Bond Market Index (Barclays Aggregate, AGG) is off about 2%.
The
drop in the TIPS has mainly been driven by the increase in yields on the 10
Year U.S. Treasury, which has seen yields rise by almost 100 basis points over
the same time period. Much of the increase in the 10 Year Treasury yield is the
result of expectations that the Federal Reserve Bank will start tapering down its
quantitative easing program in the near future. This was somewhat confirmed this
week, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that if economic data continues to
come improve, the Fed will begin to scale back the level of bond and mortgage
purchases later this year, and could end the asset purchases entirely by
mid-year 2014.
But the jump in nominal Treasury yields does not fully explain the recent increase in TIPS yields. The yields on TIPS are driven by two primary forces: nominal yields and inflationary expectations. Therefore, the increase in TIPS yields not explained by the increase in nominal bond yields is primarily attributable to falling inflationary expectations.
But the jump in nominal Treasury yields does not fully explain the recent increase in TIPS yields. The yields on TIPS are driven by two primary forces: nominal yields and inflationary expectations. Therefore, the increase in TIPS yields not explained by the increase in nominal bond yields is primarily attributable to falling inflationary expectations.
It appears that the Fed’s quantitative
easing program has been able to prevent deflation from occurring in the U.S.
economy (i.e. increasing inflation). The simultaneous combination of higher
nominal Treasury bond yields and falling inflationary expectations are the factors
that led to the significant losses in TIPS over the past several weeks.