Sunday, November 24, 2019

A Current AIM International Equity Holding: Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU, $204.13): “When Life Gives you Lululemons, Buy Their Stock”


Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU, $204.13): “When Life Gives you Lululemons, Buy Their Stock”
By: Riley Pollard, AIM Student at Marquette University


Disclosure: The AIM Equity Fund currently holds this position. This article was written by myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

 Summary

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) is a designer and distributor of athletic apparel and accessories for men, women and female youth. They operate under two brands: Lululemon and Ivivva. Lululemon specializes in “healthy lifestyle inspired” apparel for men and women and Ivivva specializes in athletic apparel for female youth.

• Since Q2 of FY2018, LULU has opened 45 new stores: 21 stores in North America, 16 in Asia, 5 in Europe and 3 in Australia/New Zealand.

• Net Revenue increased by 22%, or $159.9 million, in Q2 of fiscal 2019 from Q2 of fiscal 2018.

• LULU recently introduced ‘Practice’, a paid loyalty program that they implemented in key markets in 2019 and have plans to expand by 2021.

• A stock buyback of up to $500 million was announced in January 2019, increasing their stock repurchase program that previously authorized buybacks of $600 million in June 2018 and $200 million in November 2017.

Key points:

Lululemon Athletica continues to exceed analysts, and their own, expectations. In their five-year plan, they forecast annual revenue growth “in the low teens”, whereas analysts are predicting 15% growth for the next year. These are both conservative estimates considering the 22% annual growth they reported in their recent 10-Q.

LULU has growth in mind. They have been steadily closing Ivivva stores since 2017, with the intent of focusing more on menswear and international sales. Set to close the few remaining Ivivva stores in 2020, LULU will be able to focus on their goal of doubling their men’s business and online sales, while quadrupling their international business by 2023. They have already made strides towards their international goal, as 24 out of the 45 stores opened in the past year were opened outside of the United States.

While LULU already has a cult-following, their newly implemented loyalty program, Practice, has the potential to amass more loyal customers and take LULU’s sales to new heights. Set to expand to more locations in 2020 and “hit a full stride” by 2021, Practice has already garnered more new customers than expected in their test markets.

What has the stock done lately?

LULU stock hit a record high of $209.02 on October 16th, nearly double its 52wk low of $110.72. While the stock was down 6% as of November 5th, this decline has proven temporary. LULU closed at $204.13 on November 8th.  

Past Year Performance:

 YTD, LULU has outperformed the market substantially. While the S&P 500 has seen 23% growth, LULU boasts over 65% growth in comparison. EPS were up to $.96 in Q2 of FY2019, compared to $.71 the year prior. I expect we will be seeing further growth in the stock price when Q3 earnings are released December 9th.


Source: FactSet
My Takeaway

LULU was pitched and added to the international AIM fund in April 2016 at a price of $65.48, with an initial price target of $76.63. Since then, LULU’s stock has more than tripled in price and surpassed its price target by leaps and bounds. LULU management has a solid five-year plan in place that they have actively been working towards achieving. They have seen unprecedented growth in the past year and show no signs of stopping. That’s why I believe that when life gives you Lululemons, you should buy their stock. LULU is a valuable addition to the AIM International Fund and should stay as such for the foreseeable future.


Source: FactSet