Saturday, May 7, 2011

Krause's Kentucky Derby Picks (Race Day Update)

Dialed In

Here's a race day update on the Kentucky Derby. Given that the best horse of the field (#18 Uncle Mo) was scratched yesterday, I'm providing an update to my "best horse" of the bunch.

Best Horse: #8 Dialed In. (4:1 opening line). With a nice post position - and the scratch of Uncle Mo - Dialed In is the strongest horse in the weak field. With trainer Nick Zito producing winners and with the steady and reliable jockey Julien Leparoux (home track: Churchill Downs) riding him again, I believe Dialed In is looking good. Not an extremely fast horse, so you might not see him on the TV screen until the last turn, he's a good closer and should be capable of running down the leaders in the stretch. While maybe not the next Triple Crown winner, Dialed In is the best horse entering today's race.

Also because of the potential of a thunderstorm during the afternoon, I think you might add #17 Soldat and/or #15 Midnight Interlude to your exotics. These two are considered to be the best mudders in the field.

Here's the recap from yesterday with Uncle Mo scratched:  

Value Pick: #13 Mucho Macho Man (14:1). This long-shot Florida horse is trained by Kathy Rivo (who would be the first female trainer to win any Triple Crown race). Nice horse with a decent pedigree that has had a quiet spring --- this is a great value pick at 14:1. WPS bet on #13.

Super Long-shot: #5 Decisive Moment (60:1). Here's a speed horse that could really surprise if the big field groups together. Has not run against many strong horses this spring, but does end up in the money. At 60:1 don't bet your mortgage money on him, but this could be this year's Giacomo or Mine That Bird. Might be a good horse to include in some of the exotics.

My Favorite: #11 Master of Hounds (16:1). Great European horse. Didn't run well in the Breeder's Cup last fall, but is a strong horse with great blood lines. Best jockey of the bunch (Garrett Gomez) is getting the ride. I love the odds and I like the 11th post. Watch the odds come down as everyone comes to realize how good this horse is..... this is a WPS bet, for sure.

Good luck and bet responsibly.

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