Friday, May 6, 2011

Krause's Kentucky Derby Picks

Okay, so maybe this article isn't about the AIM program or investments, but it is the Kentucky Derby weekend! This is a tough race to handicap this year because of the large field and the lack of a clear cut favorite. Also, the weather for Saturday afternoon is somewhat uncertain....nevertheless, here goes.

Value Pick: #13 Mucho Macho Man (14:1). This long-shot Florida horse is trained by Kathy Rivo (who would be the first female trainer to win any Triple Crown race). Nice horse with a decent pedigree that has had a quiet spring --- this is a great value pick at 14:1. WPS bet on #13.

Super Long-shot: #5 Decisive Moment (60:1). Here's a speed horse that could really surprise if the big field groups together. Has not run against many strong horses this spring, but does end up in the money. At 60:1 don't bet your mortgage money on him, but this could be this year's Giacomo or Mine That Bird. Might be a good horse to include in some of the exotics.

SCRATCHED Best Horse: #18 Uncle Mo (9:2). This was going to be 'the' horse in 2011 - the one with the best shot to win the Triple Crown. The problem is that he finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial last month and has been treated for a GI infection. The word is that he might be scratched. This is a race time decision regarding the bet - if he runs, he'll be one of the favorites; however, starting out of the 18th post is not going to be easy. If any horse wins going away it will be Uncle Mo. If he runs, I'll include him in my exotic betting. Tough call that will need to be made based upon the rumors about his health.

My Favorite: #11 Master of Hounds (16:1). Great European horse. Didn't run well in the Breeder's Cup last fall, but is a strong horse with great blood lines. Best jockey of the bunch (Garrett Gomez) is getting the ride. I love the odds and I like the 11th post. Watch the odds come down as everyone comes to realize how good this horse is..... this is a WPS bet, for sure.

Good luck and bet responsibly.

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