Friday, May 2, 2014

Kentucky Derby Picks 2014

Back again for the fourth year, here are Dr. David Krause's Kentucky Derby picks. This is a weak field with many promising colts sidelined with injuries. Nevertheless, this is the most exciting thoroughbred racing event of the year. So party on....

Best of the Field: California Chrome (5-2 odds). This California-bred speed horse in the class of the field (note: it has been over 50 years since a California horse has won the Derby). Don't be fooled because his trainer (Art Sherman) is 77 years old - this is a beautiful and talented horse and skilled jockey (Victor Espinoza). CC will get out front early and run away - especially from the 5 post - and the large 20 horse field will make it difficult for a stalker to come through the pack. This will be the betting favorite on Saturday so the odds will not provide a big payout, but include him in exotics and you can have a good payday.

Value Horse: Danza (10-1 odds). If it is possible for a horse to come from behind, Danza will be the one that can do it. Winner of the Arkansas Derby, with Joe Bravo at the reins and trained by Todd Pletcher, this is colt that might be on a hot streak similar to California Chrome. A 5 length winner (as a 40-1 long shot) in the Arkansas Derby, this lightly raced horse might be wearing the roses come late Saturday afternoon. The #4 post is a good draw and if Bravo can keep Danza in mid-pack for much of the race, this could be the horse that closes down the stretch.

Long Shot: Candy Boy (20:1 odds). Another California-bred horse, Candy Boy has one of the best jockeys in the business - Gary Stevens. According to the Kentucky rail-birds, Candy Boy has looked as good this week as any horse in the field. This is another horse that can come from behind to surprise the experts. Steven, who has won 9 triple crown races in his career, is 51 years old and still capable of leading this talented colt in the front. The #18 post will be a challenge; however, in past Derby's this has not been a big issue.

Betting: Pairing up the three horse above into an Exacta box could be a nice play or taking Danza or Candy Box in a WPS bet might provide a decent ROI. In any case, bet responsibly and enjoy the Kentucky Derby!