Monday, October 29, 2018

A Current AIM Program International Equity Holding: Michael Kors Holdings LTD (KORS) by: Andrea Blomquist. "A Long Runway Ahead for Kors"



Michael Kors Holdings LTD (KORS, $62.46): “A Long Runway Ahead for Kors”
By: Andrea Blomquist AIM Student at Marquette University


Disclosure: The AIM Equity Fund currently holds this position. This article was written by myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

 Summary:

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: KORS) is an affordable-luxury retailer that provides apparel, handbags, and other accessory products to retail customers across the globe, primarily located in the United States, Canada, Europe and Japan.  KORS is headquartered in London, UK.

• KORS’ announced on September 25th, 2018 that they would acquire Versace for an enterprise value of $2.12 billion and will change its name to Capri Holdings Limited once the deal goes through.

• KORS has a tough feat ahead of itself, as it aims to continue its own personal mend while balancing the challenges of the Versace implementation. 

• Management has indicated that with Versace KORS plans to expand its global reach into Asian markets such as Korea and Japan, as well as newer parts of Europe.

Key points:

In July of 2017, KORS announced it would acquire high-end shoe brand, Jimmy Choo.  Management had made it clear that going forward, they were looking to expand their business by using both organic and inorganic means.  The announcement of the Versace acquisition was therefore not much of a surprise and left much of the street neutral towards this news.  At the $2.12 billion purchase price, that’s a hefty price tag of 22x EV/EBITDA, compared to the 17.6x EV/EBITDA they paid for Jimmy Choo and other precedent transactions, suggesting an overpayment.  Due to management’s guidance, we can expect EPS dilution in the high single digits through FY1, but after that the deal is expected to be accretive.  

The problem with the timing and decision of this acquisition is that it seems like KORS may have bit off more than it can chew.  Again, it was just over a year ago that KORS acquired Jimmy Choo to help them transition from a dried up affordable-luxury retailer.  With same store sales still negative and rocky margins, maybe KORS has other things to focus on more important than acquisitions.   

Through the Versace acquisition, KORS aims to expand into the higher-end luxury market as well as continue to expand its international presence.  Management plans to leverage Versace’s strong reputation and brand recognition within the industry to drive long-term growth.  By increasing stores in the Asian markets like Korea and Japan, KORS is aiming to corner a larger portion of the world’s fastest growing markets.

A key move for KORS through this acquisition is their plan to shift Versace’s revenue stream to focus on their footwear and accessories segment.  Given KORS specialization in shoes, specifically after their Jimmy Choo acquisition, this could be a key proponent in revitalizing both KORS and Versace.  This acquisition also presents an opportunity for KORS to capture additional market share in men’s apparel and accessories. Men’s sales currently account for about half of Versace’s revenue, significantly more diversified than other industry players. 

What has the stock done lately?

Upon news of the Jimmy Choo acquisition in July 2017, the market reacted relatively favorably compared to what we have seen since the Versace announcement.  Since Sept 25th, 2018, the day of the announcement, KORS has declined in value nearly 10%.  This is alluding to the market’s belief it was an overpriced deal.  Other volatility includes a stock pop of around 10% in Nov 2017 related to a positive 2Q earnings release. If one thing is for sure, there has been no shortage of volatility in the past few months. 

Past Year Performance: 

Over the past year, KORS has increased 31% in value, with the bulk of that gain occurring Oct-Dec 2017.  Since then, KORS performance has been very volatile, but overall the stock hasn’t seen any lasting price changes.  The bulk of the year, KORS has traded within the $60-$70 range.  The stock is currently trading at $62.46, its lowest point since June.


Source: FactSet

My Takeaway:

KORS’ Versace acquisition is a strong strategic decision as it expands their customer base both geographically and demographically.  If implemented without error, KORS stands to gain market share in the Asian markets and in developing European nations.  They also diversify their customer base as Versace pulls them into the higher-end of the luxury market, and attracts a larger portion of sales from males.  This being said, it’s a great proposition, but the implementation is up in the air.  It’s also clear that KORS overpaid for Versace, making it that much more crucial that they are able to convert this pays off in terms of both growth and profit.   


Source: FactSet