Tuesday, October 5, 2021

A Small Cap Equity holding: Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN, $27.10): “Super Potential with Supernus” By: Mitch Kamm, AIM Student at Marquette University

 

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN, $27.10): “Super Potential with Supernus”

By: Mitch Kamm, AIM Student at Marquette University


Disclosure: The AIM Equity Fund currently holds this position. This article was written by myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Summary

  • Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SUPN) is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases. The company currently offers Qelbree, Trokendi XR, Oxtellar XR, Apokyn, Xadago, and Myobloc products. Supernus has a market cap of 1,513 million and is headquartered in Rockville, MD.
  • Supernus recently received great news as its Qelbree (SPN-812) drug offering. This offering was delayed due to an FDA investigation into Supernus’ decision to relocate their production facility. This win is twofold as it allows Qelbree, a first of its kind offering, to hit the market and paved the way for SPN-830’s NDA filing on September 14th.
  • It is believed that SPN-830 could be Supernus’ most successful offering when it receives FDA approval. SPN-830 is an apomorphine continuous subcutaneous infusion pump to treat hypomobility in adults with Parkinson’s Disease (PD). Supernus was slated to release the drug in 4Q20 but needed to do more testing on the distribution device of the product and just recently filed with the NDA.
  • Supernus has remained relatively flat since being added into the portfolio in February 2020. Momentum is finally starting to turn for the company with Qelbree’s approval and optimism surrounding SPN-830. Both of these offerings can be big drivers for the firm and patience is needed to see if they can pan out.

Key points:

The recent approval of Qelbree was a big win for Supernus as it will hopefully show that the FDA’s concerns with their production relocation are all but settled. Qelbree is a first of its kind extended release capsule for the treatment of attention-deficit disorder (ADHD) in 6-17 year old patients. Qelbree is unique in that it is non-stimulant, administered once a day and the side effects are less severe than the current offerings. Only 10% of the current market for ADHD medication is made up of non-stimulants giving Supernus a big opportunity. Despite being launched early this year, Qelbree is already accessible for prescription to 60% of pediatric patients with ADHD. Assuming the firm can prove the drug’s efficacy in treating the disease while eliminating the side effects of insomnia, addiction, drug abuse and loss of appetite can make this a big winner.

Management’s focus on getting SPN-830 to a full launch took a big step on September 14th. The drug is used for the continuous treatment of ON-OFF episodes in adults with Parkinson’s disease SPN-830 would allow for a less invasive and a convenient option in the form of a continuous subcutaneous infusion of apomorphine. Current offerings require infusion of a gastric tube or surgery such as a deep brain stimulation. This less invasive surgery would be much easier to administer, and management believes this offering could reach ~600M in sales per year once it is fully adopted by the market.

 

Going forward, patience is necessary to see what happens. The outlook for Supernus is likely to be a boom or bust. The firm currently has two more offerings in their pipeline. SPN-820 is in phase 1 trials for various treatments of depression. SPN-817 is also undergoing phase 1 trials for the treatment of severe epilepsy. Qelbree and SPN-830 could be big winners for the firm but if they do not pan out then near-term the outlook appears rather bleak. Supernus needs either or both drugs to take off and give revenues the shot in the arm that is needed. Given the potential for growth within the company it is recommended that Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. continued to be held by the AIM Small Cap portfolio.

What has the stock done lately?

Supernus’ 1-month performance is up 2.61% to $27.10 and its performance over the last six months has been up 5.65%. Since the AIM Equity Fund purchased shares of Supernus at $29.42 in February 2020, the stock has decreased 7.1% in value.

Past Year Performance: Over the last year, Supernus has seen a 29.91% increase compared to the Russell 2000 Index benchmark return of 48.18%. 2021 year to date, Supernus has returned a 7.8% return miss the Russell 2000 benchmark of 14.59%.

Source: FactSet

My Takeaway

The future for Supernus could lead to superior growth and strong returns for the stock. Depending on how Qelbree and SPN-830 turn out, the company could see monumental increases in revenues which have been inconsistent year over year. Management has a proven track record of getting successful drugs onto the market and I am optimistic these and future offerings will have the same luck. Supernus has not been a winner for the portfolio so far but I think it is too early to give up. In the pharmaceutical space you oftentimes need just one big win to make an investment more than worth it. I think that big win might be coming soon in this case. Given that the investment thesis is still intact I think we need to wait and see what happens. I recommended that we continue to hold and monitor SUPN throughout their upcoming developments.