Friday, May 6, 2016

Kentucky Derby Predictions – Dr. Krause AIM Blog - A Slow Field Hopefully Yields an Exciting Race

I’m back again for the sixth year with my Kentucky Derby picks – and I’m on a bid of a hot streak having picked the winners the past two years. The 142nd 'Run for the Roses' has a shallow crop of 3-year-olds, unlike last year. The 20 horse field is weak, which can make for an exciting race.

Image result for nyquist horseOf the four major races leading up to the Derby, all of them have been won by closers – and as a result there are few speed horses in the field. While Nyquist has not yet lost, his odds are way too rich for me. I think there could be some long shots that might win in this field – so the exotic wagers could have some big payouts.

Best of the Field:  #13 Nyquist (3-1 odds)
Two years ago I successfully picked the Derby winner California Chrome and last year I chose American Pharoah to win – not too bad!  Nyquist has won seven races in 2016 (including the Florida Derby in April) and was the winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race. He’s trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Mario Gutierrez - the bloodline is fine, but not great. He will be in my exotic bets, but at 3-1 odds this pony is going off too rich for a win wager (in other words, the P/E ratio is too high).

Image result for mor spirit horse
My Favorite: #17. Mor Spirit (12-1)
Here's my winner - and I need to be straightforward and tell you that my favorite horse of all-time was Seattle Slew - who was his great grandfather. So, with a strong pedigree, the top trainer (Bob Baffert), and a famed jockey (Gary Stevens), Mor Spirit is my favorite in the Derby. The 12-1 odds on this Pennsylvania-bred horse look great - a real bargain; and I’m not worried about the 17th post because this is going to be a slow race. He's worthy of a win bet and to be included in your exotic wagers (this is a value play).

Long-shot: #20 Danzing Candy (15-1)

Image result for danzing candy horse
With all of the closers in the race, I like this speed horse. Trainer Clifford Sise (first Derby) and Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith need to get this colt to the front early – which is no easy task starting from the 20th post. This colt can run really fast - and is one of the few speed horses in this Derby - and you can ignore his weak run in the Santa Anita race in April which was run on a sloppy track. Getting out ahead of the pack could be the winning ticket - remember that this is a 20 horse field which can resemble a demolition derby. This is a fun win-place-show bet.

Here's my predicted order of finish: #17, #13 and #20. Good Luck!